@Article{AshfaqCRTIOAKATSMZDDCG:2020:RoLaTw,
author = "Ashfaq, Moetasim and Cavazos, Tereza and Reboita, Michelle
Sim{\~o}es and Torres-Alavez, Jos{\'e} Abraham and Im, Eun-Soon
and Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and
Key, Kesondra and Adeniyi, Mojisola O. and Tall, Moustapha and
Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Mehmood, Shahid and Zafar, Qudsia and
Das, Sushant and Diallo, Ismaila and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi,
Filippo",
affiliation = "{Oak Ridge National Laboratory} and {Center for Scientifc Research
and Higher Education of Ensenada} and {Universidade Federal de
Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)} and {Abdus Salam International Centre for
Theoretical Physics} and {Hong Kong University of Science and
Technology} and National Space Research and Development Agency,
Anyigba, Nigeria and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Oak Ridge National Laboratory} and {University of
Ibadan} and Universit{\'e} Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar-Fann and
{African Institute for Mathematical Sciences} and {Oak Ridge
National Laboratory} and Global Change Impact Studies Centre,
Islamabad, Pakistan and {Abdus Salam International Centre for
Theoretical Physics} and {} and {University of California-Los
Angeles} and {Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical
Physics}",
title = "Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in
RegCM-CORDEX simulations",
journal = "Climate Dynamics",
year = "2020",
volume = "55",
pages = "1",
abstract = "We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM)
projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the
frst time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various
levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional
simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid
spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three
General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the ffth
phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each
simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5).
Regional climate simulations exhibit high fdelity in capturing key
characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across
monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period,
regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon
onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy
season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions
with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in
pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between
pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening
of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon
period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the
monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep
convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are
mostly within the baseline variability.",
doi = "10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2",
issn = "0930-7575",
label = "lattes: 2194275113941232 7 AshfaqCRTIOAKATSMZDCG:2020:RoLaTw",
language = "en",
targetfile = "ashfaq_robust3.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}